ACARE Vision 2020: How Well Have We Done?
The ACARE Vision 2020, published in January 2001 targeted a ‘A 50% cut in CO2 emissions per passenger kilometre (which means a 50% cut in fuel consumption in the new aircraft of 2020 …’. It is not clear what the baseline for this improvement!
If it is the ‘average CO2 per passenger kilometre for the 2000 global fleet’, then the target has almost certainly been met.
If it is the ‘average CO2 per passenger kilometre for aircraft entering service in 2000’ then the target is more of challenge.
Baseline: ‘Average CO2 per passenger kilometre for the 2000 global fleet’ – TARGET LIKELY MET
25-30% less fuel per passenger kilometre on a direct aircraft to aircraft comparison.
2000 fleet included large sub-fleets of aircraft designed in the 1960’s and 1970’s, e.g. Boeing 747 Classics and 747-400s, DC-10s, 737-100/-200, 737 Classics, 727, DC-9, MD-80, Soviet era aircraft plus others – almost all of these were retired before 2020.
A300, A310 and 757 and 767 fleet sizes were also significant – aircraft designed in the late 1970’s early 1980’s.
777 and A330/A340, 737NG fleets were still small but growing
The aircraft being delivered in 2020 (787, A350, A330neo, A320neo and 737Max, A220) deliver a further 10-20% relative to this position. 787 and A350 fleet sizes are now significant.
5-10% due to the 2.5 times expansion of the global airline network since 2000 – this will bias the average toward the greater number of newer aircraft in the fleet (older aircraft less numerous and used on shorter flights).
~10% (maybe higher) due to passenger densification. There has been a massive increase in low cost carriers operating with much higher seating densities with many legacy airlines also required to increase their own seat density to compete.
5-10% due to larger single-aisle aircraft. 180-200 seat aircraft now common (in 2000, 130-150 was more typical). Changes to wide-body seat counts are less clear due to fewer very large aircraft (747/A380) but also less smaller aircraft (e.g. 767, A300, A310).
If the mid-points of all these factors are compounded together, a further ~10% improvement is required. This could come from:
only considering those aircraft being delivered new in 2020 against the 2000 average
operational improvements
More optimum routing
Improved flight planning capability and tools
Better airspace management (FAA NextGen and SESAR)
More optimum vertical flight profiles
RVSM implementation
Continuous descent operations (reduced use of Hold and arrival planning)
Introduction of step-climbs in Oceanic airspace
Baseline: Average CO2 per passenger kilometre for aircraft entering service in 2000’ – REACHING TARGET MORE DIFFICULT TO CLAIM
In 2000, the state-of-the-art aircraft were the 777, A330/A340, 737NG and A320 (although already in service for >10 years).
The 2020 equivalents (777-9, A350, 787, A330neo, 737MAX, A320neo, A220) are delivering about 15-20% improved CO2/passenger kilometre.
Similar benefits (listed earlier) from seating densification and increased aircraft size (single aisle particularly) can also be applied.
Benefits from fleet growth not possible as aging aircraft not included in the 2000 baseline.
If the 10% operational benefit is also included, then the total improvement in 2020 CO2 per passenger kilometre is ~60% of the 2000 value – still very good, but short of the target
REGIONAL Aircraft ignored due to relatively small impact on global fuel usage and RPKs
